Peggy Noonan had an interesting OpEd in the weekend edition of the WSJ (my analysis follows):

“I still think a one-term pledge could win it for him, because it would allow America to punt. It would make the 2008 choice seem less fateful. People don’t mind the chance to defer a choice when they’re not at all sure about the product. It would give bitter Democrats a chance to regroup, and it would give those who like Obama but consider him a little half-baked to vote against him guiltlessly while he becomes fully baked. (Imagine the Q&A when Sen. Obama announces his second presidential run in 2011: “Well, Brian, I think, looking back, there is something to be said for the idea that I will be a better president now than frankly I would have been four years ago. Experience, if you allow it, is still the best of all teachers.”) More, it would allow Mr. McCain to say he means to face the tough problems ahead with a uniquely bipartisan attitude and without having to care a fig for re-election. That itself would give him a new power, one that would make up for the lost juice of lame duckdom. It would also serve to separate him from the hyperpolitical operating styles of the Clinton-Bush years, from the constant campaign.

And Mr. McCain would still have what he always wanted, the presidency, perhaps a serious and respectable one that accrued special respect because it involved some sacrifice on his part.

A move that would help him win doubtful voters, win disaffected Democrats, allow some Republicans to not have to get drunk to vote for him, and that could possibly yield real results for his country. This seems to me such a potentially electrifying idea that he’d likely walk out of his convention as the future president.” http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html

I think she is right in that a one-term pledge would placate both hesitant Democrats/Independents and disaffected Republicans. Note, I would not go as far as her by stating it takes a couple cocktails before heading to the polling booth to vote for McCain.

However, there is one major caveat. The one-term pledge is only effective if Sen. McCain chooses a conservative running mate. If he were to choose a Tom Ridge or Sen. Lieberman, the entire concept of helping conservatives look toward the future is neutralized.

Furthermore, from recent polls it has become clear age will in fact end up playing a deciding role for some individuals in November.

I’m confident a one-term pledge would go a long way in helping Sen. McCain secure many of those voters on the proverbial fence.

-Jake